Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Aug 19 2026 stocks regained their footing when Treasury Secretary Bessent announced doubling long-bond buybacks to try to stop rising bond rates. For the day it worked and bond yields dipped lower but whether this can work longer than a few days is anyone’s guess.
The SPX ended the day up 16 points to close at 7707. Volume was higher at 5.3 billion with 62% of all stocks rising on the index by the close.
The NASDAQ rose 41 points ending the day at 26,331. Volume was higher at 8.5 billion shares traded. By the close 54% of all stocks were rising.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close of Wed Aug 19 2026 to see what they predict for Thu Aug 20 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Aug 19 2026
The index ended the day below the Upper Bollinger Band for an 8th day which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday but does have along shadow which could be signaling a bounce attempt today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7613. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7527. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7380. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7120. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending sideways which is bearish. Signals are advising stocks may pullback shortly.
The SPX chart is almost equally split between bear and bull but a higher day is more likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Aug 19 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Mon Aug 3 2026. The up signal was almost gone on Wed Aug 19 2026.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is overbought and bearish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling. It is signaling Thursday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7800 is resistance |
| 7780 is resistance |
| 7750 is resistance |
| 7700 is resistance |
| 7650 is resistance |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is support |
| 7450 is support |
| 7425 is support |
| 7400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 20 2026
For Thu Aug 20 2026 the technical indicators are still pointing to weakness as dominating trading today. The closing candlestick on Wednesday indicated a chance for a bounce today but until the majority of technical indicators change to bullish, the index will remain facing weakness. Dips then are likely. For Thursday though I anticipate a bounce based on the closing candlestick but whether it holds is unknown.
In the economic reports, we get the latest Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims which a number of economists think will be higher than estimates of 210,000. That could weigh a bit on stocks if they come in at 215,000 or more. A number below 210,000 will support stocks moving higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Survey beat estimated and rose to 20.6
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index for August beat estimates and rose to 35
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing starts for July were lower than estimated, coming in at 1.2 million
8:30 Import prices were far lower than estimated, coming in at -0.4%
9:15 Industrial production month over month for Julywas weaker than estimated, coming in at 0.2%
10:00 Pending Home Sales month over month were lower than estimated at -2.3%
Wednesday:
2:00 FOMC latest minutes
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Aug 15 are estimated to rise to 210,000
10:00 Leading indicators from July are estimated to rise 0.1% from -0.2% prior