With Boeing Stock moving higher on Friday to close up 1.5% to 378.99, investors decided to move into other stocks as well and buying increased. By the close of trading investors had shrugged off worries about slowing world economies, trade talks still continuing with China, terrible unemployment numbers that analysts still couldn’t figure out and a raft of smaller economic indicators that continued to show a slowing in the overall economy, at home and global. All three indexes closed higher and posted their best weekly gains for the year.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Mar 15 2018
There are now 4 up signals in place on the SPX and the Bollinger Bands is not well above the 200 day moving average. The closing candlestick on Friday is bullish for Monday.
The index also closed above the 21 day moving average for the fifth day.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is now underway which could send stocks a lot higher or back lower. At present, the outlook is for stocks to swing higher.
Overall the chart is continuing to show strength and the 50 day is also pushing higher and could move above the 200 day this week.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive but moving sideways.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday February 28 2019. The sell signal was very weak on Friday. It won’t take much to turn this back into an up signal.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place for Monday.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways indicating that not a lot of change in pricing is expected, at least not for the start of the week.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
2900 was support – this will be strong resistance
2860 was support – this will be resistance
2830 was light support and will be light resistance
2800 is strong resistance
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.
The 2500 level is support.
The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.
There is good support at 2425.
Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.
2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Mar 18 2019
The technical indicators are bullish for Monday. The chart is also bullish for Monday.
There are some signs indicating we could see some dips on Monday. I will be using dips to setup more trades on Monday. The index will be higher by the close on Monday.
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