Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thu Jun 18 2026 investors tossed aside the new Fed Chair Warsh comments and bet on no interest rate hikes in the near future. They bought back into many of the stocks they sold off on Wednesday.
The SPXrose 80 points to close at 7500. For the week the index gained 69 points. By the close 62% of all stocks on the index were rising.
The NASDAQ recovered all of Wednesday’s loss as it rose 496 points to close at 26517. With triple witching, volume rose to 19.2 million. 73% of all volume was trading higher and 59% of all stocks on the index closed higher. The NASDAQ ended the week up 629 points.
This week will be all about inflation with a number of reports to be released. However at present unless the inflation numbers are stronger than anticipated, stocks look set to still move higher.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Jun 18 2026 to see what they predict for Mon Jun 22 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jun 18 2026
The index closed just above the 21 day moving average which is bullish but well below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday with the candlestick signaling dips should be expected.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 7482. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7315. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7129. This is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6887. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and just below the 50 day moving average. This is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Mon Jun 22 2026 except for the closing candlestick which is warning of dips for Monday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jun 18 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue May 19 2026. On Thu Jun 18 2026 the down signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. This is bearish.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and bullish.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling today will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7600 is resistance |
| 7590 is resistance |
| 7570 is resistance |
| 7550 is resistance |
| 7500 is resistance |
| 7450 is resistance |
| 7425 is resistance |
| 7400 is resistance |
| 7370 is resistance |
| 7350 is support |
| 7300 is support |
| 7280 is support |
| 7250 is support |
| 7200 is support |
| 7175 is support |
| 7150 is support |
| 7125 is support |
| 7100 is good support |
| 7050 is good support |
| 7000 is stronger support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 22 2026
With the rally on Thursday and the close back at the 7500 level, the SPX 7350 becomes support. 7500 is rapidly becoming an important level for the ongoing rally.
Today we could see some weakness but the moving averages are all positive and trending higher which is a good sign. The largest negative signal is coming from the closing candlestick which is advising we will see dips today.
With inflation reports due out this week, we may see stocks wander ahead of the latest inflation readings. However at this point in the rally, inflation numbers would have to surprise with strength to end the rally.
As well with the Iran conflict still “on hold” this is positive for stocks and inflation. Monday may end slightly lower but overall the week should end higher. Thursday is the dominant day for inflation reports with various Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports released. Tuesday though see flash manufacturing and services PMI and they too could weigh on stocks. Today any dips are still opportunities to setup trades.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
9:45 Jun Flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to have fallen to 54.8 from 55.3 prior
9:45 Jun Flash services PMI is estimated to have risen to 51 from 50.9
Wednesday:
10:00 New home sales for May is estimated to have risen to 634K from 622K prior
4:00 Fed Board annual bank stress test results