Stock Market Outlook For Thu Jun 11 2026 – Oversold Bounce – Flat To Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Wed Jun 10 2026 stocks attempted to hold back sellers but when the early morning bounce failed, sellers took charge. By 2:00 a second rally was failing and stocks moved to new lows. The close on the day was at the lows which has setup the index for a potential oversold bounce attempt.

The S&P fell 119 points to close at 7267. This was near Tuesday’s sell-off bottom before stocks rallied back. This is usually a fairly bearish signal but much of the market at present is being driven by momentum and investor angst. With emotion running high, investors are being dragged into rallies and sell-offs as they try to get a better picture on where stocks might be heading.

The SPX traded 5.3 billion shares with 66% being traded lower. There were however 114 new 52 week highs and only 67 new lows. This is still bullish. 38% of all stocks were still rising by the close.

The NASDAQ once again had a worse day falling 509 points on 9.9 billion shares traded. The index closed at 25,169. New 52 week lows outpaced new highs with 216 new lows versus 185 new highs. 55% of trading volume was moving lower and 61% of stocks were declining as chipmakers once again were being hammered.

Inflation worries dominated the morning open with reports showing inflation rising while President Trump indicated inflation would come down quickly once the war with Iran ended. However the President also announced an escalation of the hostilities which was a main culprit of the afternoon selling.

Oracle after hours on Wednesday reported earnings and revenue that beat estimates but also announced a plan to raise $40 billion in financing to fund its data center build-out. That news sent the stock lower after hours and will probably weigh further on chipmaker stocks again on Thursday.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Jun 10 2026 to see what they predict for Thu Jun 11 2026.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 10 2026 

The index closed below the 21 day moving average but you can see in the chart that it didn’t quite match the low point from Tuesday’s sell-off.  It is though well below the Upper Bollinger Band and probably setup to reach the 50 day which is not much of a drop. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday with a long candlestick which often indicates we could see some morning selling and then an afternoon bounce attempt rather than a bounce at the open and then a move lower.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7468. This is bearish..

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7213. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7086. This is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6850. This is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is heading higher which is also bearish. We could be seeing a signal from the Bollinger Bands of a further move lower.

The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for June 11.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 10 2026

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 11 2026 

For Thursday stocks look set to open lower and dip further thanks in part to Oracle (ORCL) earnings which beat earnings and revenue estimates but also announced $40 billion in financing to fund its data center build-out. Investors didn’t like this news and sold the stock after hours on Wednesday. Today we should see more selling in Oracle Stock (ORCL). If that happens it will draw lower other chip stocks that have already been caught in the downturn.

The technical indicators are pointing lower but almost all are also signaling the market is very oversold. Normally we can expect some kind of a bounce but whether it is today, tomorrow or Monday, is anyone’s guess. We also get the latest PPI numbers this morning before the open. If stronger than estimated, we could see more selling pressure.

For Thursday watch for a early attempt to move higher followed by another pullback. A lower close is likely. Strength in the market is down at the 7100 level and stronger support is at 7000. Over the past 6 days the SPX has lost 342 points. The 7100 and lower levels could easily be reached this week. Staying cautionary and taking on only small positions is my strategy at present.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

no reports scheduled

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index fell lower than estimated, to 95.3.

8:30 April trade balancewas better than estimated at -$55.9 billion better than the last reading of -$56.6 billion

10:00 Existing home sales for May were stronger than estimated at 4.17 million, up from 4.02 million prior

10:00 Wholesale inventories for April were better than estimated coming in at 0.6% but still below the 1.5% reading from the last report

Wednesday:

8:30 CPI for May is estimated to fall slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% prior

8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated to jump to 4.2% from 3.8% prior

8:30 Core CPI for May is estimated to fall to 0.3% from 0.4% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.9% from 2.8%

2:00 Monthly federal budget is estimated at -$292 billion versus -$316 billion prior

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for June 6 are estimated at 220,000

8:30 Producer Price Index for May is estimated to fall to 0.7% from 1.4% prior

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to drop to 0.4% from 0.6% prior

8:30 PPI yea over year is estimated unchanged at 6.0%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 4.4%

Friday:

No reports