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Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 4 2023 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Dec 4, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Morning weakness possible but higher closePrior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday stocks broke from the sideways pattern and pushed higher to start the month of December.

The SPX rose almost 27 points for the largest one day move since Nov 20. The index closed at 4594.63 and intraday briefly broke above 4600.

The NASDAQ rose 78 points to close at 14,305.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Dec 1 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 4 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 1 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued rose higher but still below the Upper Bollinger Band.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday.

The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising sharply which is presently bearish and it has reached the 200 day. It appears ready to cross above the 200 day which will signal the start of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The S&P chart is back bullish despite the Lower Bollinger Band’s move.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 1 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Dec 1 2023 the signal lost more strength. The MACD histogram is almost turning lower and could become negative early this week.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is not overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling no large swings are expected intraday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4650 is resistance
4625 is resistance
4615 is resistance
4600 is resistance
4590 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4565 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4535 is support
4520 is support
4500 is support
4475 is support
4450 is support
4440 is support
4425 is support
4400 is support
4375 is support
4350 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 4 2023 

For Monday the technical signals are advising we could see some weakness today, probably in the morning but a higher close is expected.

Historically the first week of December has been positive 72% of the time since I have kept records from 1974.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are US services PMI on Tuesday and the big event is the November non-farm payroll report due out on Friday before the open.

Monday:

10:00 Factory orders are expected to drop to -3.5% from a positive 2.8%






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