Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday stocks broke from the sideways pattern and pushed higher to start the month of December.
The SPX rose almost 27 points for the largest one day move since Nov 20. The index closed at 4594.63 and intraday briefly broke above 4600.
The NASDAQ rose 78 points to close at 14,305.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Dec 1 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 4 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 1 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and continued rose higher but still below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.
The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising sharply which is presently bearish and it has reached the 200 day. It appears ready to cross above the 200 day which will signal the start of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is back bullish despite the Lower Bollinger Band’s move.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 1 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Dec 1 2023 the signal lost more strength. The MACD histogram is almost turning lower and could become negative early this week.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is not overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is very overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling no large swings are expected intraday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4650 is resistance |
| 4625 is resistance |
| 4615 is resistance |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4590 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4565 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4440 is support |
| 4425 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 4 2023
For Monday the technical signals are advising we could see some weakness today, probably in the morning but a higher close is expected.
Historically the first week of December has been positive 72% of the time since I have kept records from 1974.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are US services PMI on Tuesday and the big event is the November non-farm payroll report due out on Friday before the open.
Monday:
10:00 Factory orders are expected to drop to -3.5% from a positive 2.8%