Stock Market Outlook for Mon Aug 19 2019 – Choppy, Dips Likely But Higher Close

Friday saw indexes finally rally strongly.

The close saw the S&P up 41.08 points closing at 2888.68.

This almost recovers all the losses from Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Aug 16 2019

Friday saw the S&P push higher above the 200 day moving average. It reached the 100 day moving average before closing slightly below it.

The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday which issued another sell signal on the S&P.

The 100 day moving average which had been trying to break above the 2900 valuation fell back and closed just below the 2900 day confirming a down move for the index.

The 200 day moving average is still moving higher and is, at present, holding the S&P up from a further decline.

The closing candlestick on Friday was bullish for Monday.

The Upper Bollinger Band and Lower Bollinger Band are continuing to turn lower which is bearish.

Overall the index chart is more bearish than bullish due to the new sell signal on Friday from the 21 day moving average.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Aug 16 19

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising but still negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday July 18. The down signal was a bit weaker on Friday but still reasonably strong.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is negative but back trying to rise.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a down signal in place.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is light resistance

2900 is light resistance

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Aug 19 2019 

Monday should start with a spike higher but then a dip back lower to look for some support.

The index is still bullish enough to see the rally push higher for another day but overall the market still needs a further catalyst to the upside to break and stay above 2950.

On Monday the index should push above 2900 easily but dips below 2900 will occur during the day. Despite this there is a good chance for the index to close above 2900 on Monday. That could setup Tuesday though, to close weaker.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday's GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024 discuss the expected sell-off and weakness after the recent bounce in equities. There are a large number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw the rally stall. With the rally stalling investors took profits which weighed on stocks. The close saw the SPX up just 1 point at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024 discuss the second bounce on Tuesday and the outlook for the remainder of the week. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 23 2024 discuss the bounce on Monday. There are trade ideas on a wide number of stocks including Nucor ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 23 2024 – Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the long awaited bounce from the recent selling and market breadth was bullish. The SPX rose 43 points recovering all of Friday's loss to ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 22 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of the fourth week of April. There are also comments on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 22 2024 – No Change – Deeply Oversold Bounce Possible

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw stocks open flat and try to climb within the first 15 minutes. When that failed the selling continued. The early afternoon saw a rally ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 19 2024 discuss the outlook for for a potential bounce that ends the day with the indexes positive. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 19 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Likely – Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw another morning bounce attempt but no follow through. However the SPX did not break below 5000 and managed to close at 5011 although minutes ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 18 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday and a possible bounce or a move lower. There are trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 18 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw a bounce attempt at the open which managed to reach 5078 before selling once again pushed stocks lower. By 12:45 stocks looks almost ready ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024 discuss the outlook for a potential bounce on Wednesday. There are trade ideas outlined in Las Vegas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 17 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday found stocks stuck in a fairly tight trading range as investors remain worried about a potential Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran and what might be ....... Read More