On Thursday April 1, the final day of trading for the S&P the index closed at an all-time high rising 47 points to 4019.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Apr 1 2021
The Upper Bollinger Band on is continuing to rise and the index closed just below it. This left behind a bullish candlestick for Monday but also indicated the index is overbought to start off April.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving sideways and below the 21 and 50 day moving averages which is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is climbing higher away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.
Overall the S&P chart is quite bullish.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Thursday the up signal was stronger.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and starting to signal overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4000 is resistance
3900 is support and the 50 day is just below this.
3850 is support
3800 is support
3750 is good support and the 100 day is just above this level
3700 is light support
3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.
3600 is strong support and the 200 day is at this level.
3550 is support
3500 is strong support
3450 is support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Apr 5 2021
For Monday the technical indicators are advising that the index is overbought but with still plenty of room to rise before it is so overbought that it will pause.
Technical indicators are almost entirely bullish. Only the Slow Stochastic is showing a weaker up signal and that could take a day or more before it takes any effect.
Monday morning will see some dips as Thursday’s climb in the afternoon was strong and on good volume. Almost always that is followed by a dip at the open or near the open but any dip will be quickly bought by investors eager to follow stocks higher.
The outlook is bullish overall and Monday will close higher.