Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 13 2019 – Overbought But Bias Is Up

Thursday saw investors push the S&P to 3020, just 8 points from the all-time high.

The final hour of trading saw investors sell the rally and end the day with the index down to 3009.57.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Sep 12 2019 

The 21 day moving average is continuing to climb as it pushes toward the 50 day.

The closing candlestick on Thursday is bullish but it also is a reversal signal which often means a negative day could be coming up shortly.

The 50 day moving average is no longer falling. The 100 and 200 are climbing signaling further up side is ahead.

The S&P chart is more bullish again, heading into Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 12 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive but moving sideways indicating not much upside is expected on Friday.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thurs Aug 29. The up signal was stronger on Thursday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive but falling back a bit.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal is neutral and is very overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is signaling sideways which means prices are not expected to climb or fall.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is good support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Sep 13 2019 

The market is still overbought but overbought markets can last a while.

For Friday the morning could see a dip fairly early but then a rally should start again and the index has a good chance to push beyond 3020.

While the index could break the all-time high on Friday, a close above the all-time high is unlikely to end the week but a positive day is expected as, while the market is overbought, the outlook is still higher.

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