The Market Direction Outlook for the SPX for Wednesday Apr 15 2015 was for the day to be a key day. In yesterday’s Market Direction Outlook I explained that stocks had to get going and move higher or risk the market moving lower. While it is obvious that there was no heavy consolidation at the 2100 level, stocks were having trouble partly due to lower volumes. Today stocks moved convincing higher although they did give back quite a lot of the day’s morning rally.
Advance Decline for Apr 15 2015
Volume finally picked up on Wednesday with 4 billion shares traded, a huge jump from Tuesday and Monday of this week. Up volume was 68% of all trades but new highs were just 106. New lows though were just 6. New lows this small almost always indicate consolidation.
Market Direction Closings For Apr 15 2015
The S&P closed at 2106.63 up 10.79. The Dow closed at 18,112.61 up 75.91. The NASDAQ closed at 5011.02 up 33.73.
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Apr 15 2015
Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Apr 15 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for Apr 16 2015.
Market Direction Technical Analysis for Apr 15 2015
Stock Chart Comments:
The most significant event today was the SPX deciding to move higher from the outset and staying up. As well the 20 day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen to the 50 day moving average.
Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
2100 was very light support and is now resistance. Stocks will have to stay above it to change it back to support.
2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each pullback in January and February.
Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.
1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.
The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.
A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors and bring to question whether the bull market is finished.
Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is positive and back climbing.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Apr 9 and that signal rose again today.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and moving higher as it reaches an overbought state.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The Rate Of Change is not moving higher but trending either sideways or slightly lower. This indicator is not signaling for the rally to continue.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The slow stochastic is still pointing up for stocks.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also pointing up for stocks.
Market Direction Outlook for Apr 16 2015
Once again the technical indicators in general are still pointing higher but selling pressure continues to grow.
With the S&P now up to within a short distance of the all-time high, stocks look set to turn at least sideways on Thursday but the bias is higher and I think the S&P will close higher on Thursday.
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