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Stock Market Outlook For Fri Sep 18 2026 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher Close

Sep 18, 2026 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Choppy Dips Higher

 


Prior Trading Day Summary

On Thu Sep 17 2026 stocks saw the bounce investors were waiting for. Everything lined up for the rally with oil prices dipping and bond yields also sliding lower after yesterday’s interest rate hike by the Fed.

The SPX rose 86 points to close at 7637. Volume was lower at 5.2 billion shares traded with 60% of all volume moving higher. New lows fell to 96 the largest drop since the start of the month.  By the close 63% of all stocks were rising on the SPX.

The NASDAQ rose 439 points to close at 26,418. Trading volume rose was good at 10.3 billion. By the close the NASDAQ saw 67% of all stocks rising and the index turned positive for the first time this week.

Trading was not as robust as other bounces we have seen but it was strong enough to assume a second day of moving higher should end the week.

Let’s review the SPX closing technical indicators from Thu Sep 17 2026 to see what they predict for Fri Sep 18 2026.

Prior Trading Day Earned Income

On Thu Sep 17 2026 there were 8 trades with a total income earned of $4168.

This brings the total income earned this week to $17,661.

Among the trades done on Thursday was a trade in Tesla Stock (TSLA) as well as an excellent trade in VISA Stock (V). Trades are still being kept to a conservative amount to insure there is lots of capital available for dips or pullbacks. Members can review all of Thursday’s trades through this list. Reviewing prior trades can be helpful and profitable as prices change constantly and prices often improve in the day(s) following trades being entered.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Sep 17 2026 

The index ended the day below the Upper Bollinger Band and the 21 day but back above the 50 day moving average.

The closing candlestick signals Thursday was a bounce. There are shadows top and bottom which signal dips are likely today but a higher close is still the more likely outcome.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 7660. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 7615. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 7470. This is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 7210. This is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is just above the 100 day moving average. It is signaling the bounce could last into Friday. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling but turning sideways. This is still bearish but points to the likelihood that stocks will move higher.

The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for Friday but has signs the day should end positive even if there are dips.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 17 2026


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising but negative. It is bearish but points to a potential bounce.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Aug 20 2026. On Thu Sep 17 2026 the down signal lost strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and while still bearish it is pointing to a higher reading for Friday.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is still oversold. A move higher is likely for Friday.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is bouncing and points to a higher day for Friday.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling that Friday will end higher.

Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.


Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

7800 is resistance
7780 is resistance
7750 is resistance
7700 is resistance
7650 is resistance
7600 is resistance
7590 is resistance
7570 is resistance
7550 is resistance
7500 is support
7450 is support
7425 is support
7400 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Fri Sep 18 2026 

As long as oil and bond yields stay under wraps on Friday, stocks may dip but the outlook is for a higher close.

On Thursday the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower than estimated at 196,000 which continues to show strength in the economy and labor markets.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 7.6, much lower than estimated and well below the 20.6 prior

Wednesday: 

8:30 Retail Sales for Aug were much stronger coming in at 1.2% beating the prior reading of -0.6%

8:30 Import Prices for Augrose far more than estimated to 0.7%

10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index for Sep was lower than estimated at 32

2:00 Fed interest rate increased by a quarter point

2:30 Fed news conference sent stocks lower

Thursday:

8:30 Housing starts for Aug rose to 1.3 million from 1.2 million prior

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Sep 12 fell to 196,000

10:00 Pending home sales for August rose to 0.2% which was below estimates but still above the prior reading of -2.3%

Friday:

9:15 Industrial Production month to month is estimated to rise slightly to 0.3% from 0.2% prior

9:15 Capacity Utilization for August is estimated to rise to 76.4% from 76.3% prior

10:00 Leading indicators for August are estimated to remain unchanged at 0.2%

 

 

 

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