If gold and oil are any indicators, then tensions in the Syrian crisis may be easing as both commodities declined on Tuesday. Gold is within 6 dollars of breaking back below $1350.00 just a week after many analysts called the bear market in gold as over and $1400 as the bottom. Gold and oil are tricky commodities to trade within. I have had a lot of investor friends do very well for months trading within both commodities only to take huge losses suddenly on one or two trades that wiped out months of gains. I much prefer a commodity stock like Exxon Stock and ABX Stock instead of the actual commodity itself. I find trading within the stock itself a lot easier.
Exxon Stock One Year Chart
For example, below is the one year chart on Exxon Stock. (Symbol is XOM). Oil has had a whip-saw year but I am up 22% in actual profits earned on Exxon Stock mainly through Put Selling. While it is tough to make a lot of “perfect” calls on the price of oil, I have found XOM Stock holding a lot of support at the $85 put strike and that has been my favorite for much of the past 12 months. At present I am holding the $85 naked puts for September 21 expiry. I will shortly be selling the $85 for October 19 expiry as well. You can view the 2013 Exxon Stock trades here. So let’s hope that the decline in oil and gold prices is correct and the Syrian crisis is either averted or becomes a very small event that does not impact the stock markets like it did the last week.
Market Direction Action For Sep 10 2013
The 5 minute S&P 500 chart below shows today’s action. We had a small gap open at the start and then by 11:00 AM the market direction put in the morning high. It ended up that the morning high was the closing high as well. While not quite as exciting a day as yesterday, the market direction higher did solidify the 1670 level and punched through the 1680 for almost the entire day.
Some of this market direction up euphoria has been caused by the change in the Syrian crisis, but it is also being caused by a weakening dollar and a big jump in the Transportation index which is taken by a lot of investors as a buy signal. As well there is evidence that China is picking up the pace with industrial production up 10.4 % higher in August than the year before. That also should help out YUM Stock which I am still holding puts at for Sept 21 expiry.
Advance Declines For Sep 10 2013
With today’s rise the advance decline and market breadth is looking stronger. The number of advancing stocks versus declining stocks was not as high as yesterday with 64% of stock advancing versus yesterday’s 77%, and 34% of stock declining versus 21% yesterday, but the new highs today was 293 versus new lows of 126. These are the types of new highs we need to see to add momentum to the market direction push higher.
Market Direction Closing For Sep 10 2013
The S&P 500 closed at 1,683.99 up 12.28. The Dow closed at 15,191.06 up 127.94. The NASDAQ closed at 3,729.02 up 22.84. The Dow was the worst performing index over the past 4 weeks and as such it is making up for its losses by now returning double-digit gains.
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Sep 10 2013
Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Sep 10 2013 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for Sept 11 2013.
For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is higher again today and the reading is stronger. This is what the market direction up needs to see.
For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Sep 9 and today confirmed that buy signal with a very strong divergence reading of 3.03. We could see some sideways action tomorrow with such a strong signal just the day after a buy signal was issued.
The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and now nearing overbought.
Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change is almost neutral. Now we need to see if it turns positive and how strong the readings are. The stronger the readings the more investors are busy buying.
For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is signaling that the market direction is up. It is nearing overbought.
For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is indicating that the market direction is up and it too is nearing overbought.
Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for Sept 11 2013
Tomorrow marks the anniversary of 9/11. It is a day for reflection on one of the worst events I have witnessed in my lifetime. Every year I recall two dear friends who were caught on that day and both managed to survive. Neither works within the financial community any longer, but they have put together their lives and continue to live within New York which they describe as the “best” city in the world. I have visited several times and have to agree. New York is a wonderfully vibrant city and I am so glad they survived.
The past two days have followed my market direction outlook almost to the letter. But now the S&P 500 broke through 1680 and did it too easily in my opinion. Once again there was not enough back-filling so I believe we will see some testing of 1680 first before the markets can move higher.
MACD gave a very strong confirmation reading and my experience has been that the confirmation reading when it is quite strong often is followed by a day or two of some weakness and sideways action.
Finally, the market direction up has been strong and these double-digit advances have pushed the markets into an overbought condition. While not strongly overbought I think there are enough signs that the market direction may drift sideways for at least a day. While the bias is still up, the market will probably take a short breather here.
When investors see that the market direction does not pull back then more investors will enter the markets and push the market direction higher. This rally is not over in my opinion and the market direction technical indicators are advising that this is an opportunity for more upside in stocks. But the push to 1680 was too short and the break through too easy. I think there is more testing ahead at 1680 before the market direction resumes to up. For tomorrow look for some weakness to enter the market but overall the market direction is still higher this week.
Market Direction Internal Links
Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)
Understanding Short-Term Signals
Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)