Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday stocks continued to push higher on the back of better than estimated earnings from a number of large cap companies. With their stocks continuing to climb, stocks are once more extremely overbought.
The SPX rose 21 points to close at another new high of 7230 on 4.9 billion shares traded. 48% of all stocks were climbing by the close. For the week the SPX ended up 65 points. The month of April was one of the best April trading periods in years with a gain of 641 points for a return of 9.8%.
The NASDAQ rose 222 points to close at 25,114 with 68%% of stocks on the index rising. Volume slipped slightly to 7.6 billion. For the week the index was up 277 points. For the month of April the index added 3301 points for a stunning gain of 15.2%.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri May 1 2026, to see what they predict for Mon May 4 2026.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri May 1 2026
The index closed above all major moving averages but inside the Upper Bollinger Band for an ninth day. The index is back climbing which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday but has a long shadow which usually indicates dips are likely and some could be a it deeper than anticipated.
The 21 day moving average is rising sharply and closed at 6988. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6821. This is bullish but below the 100 day moving average.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6829. This is bullish but we need to see the 50 day move above the 100 day this week.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6665. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday but is signaling very overbought and dips are likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling. This is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Apr 7 2026. On Fri May 1 2026 the up signal lost more strength which is bearish.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is extremely overbought. It is at levels where a pullback should be expected.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and once again overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling and signaling a lower close is likely. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 7250 is resistance |
| 7230 is resistance |
| 7200 is resistance |
| 7190 is resistance |
| 7175 is resistance |
| 7150 is resistance |
| 7125 is resistance |
| 7100 is resistance |
| 7050 is resistance |
| 7000 is resistance |
| 6950 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is support |
| 6850 is support |
| 6800 is support |
| 6780 is support |
| 6750 is support |
| 6735 is support |
| 6700 is support |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 4 2026
For Monday stocks have a good chance to move higher early in the day but dips are likely as the day progresses. Many investors are still not in the rally and any dips today, particularly if they are deep may not last long as investors will want to jump into stocks and take advantage of dips.
There is a chance the index may close flat to slightly lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Factory orders for March are estimated to slip to 0.3% from 0.5% prior