Market Direction Outlook For June 24 2013 – Lower

Friday didn’t seen much of a bounce back particularly when you consider the amount of damage done to the stock markets. I would have expected a larger bounce back on Friday but sometimes it takes more than one day for the markets to try to bounce back from being oversold. Conviction among investors though has been badly damaged and technically markets have been dealt a tough vlow to any further market direction rally. In a number of market direction comments I mentioned the importance of 1600 on the S&P 500. If you look at the chart below from Thursday you can see the significance of the 1600 level and how often it was being tested until it broke on Friday. The next level of significance is 1540 which is below the 100 period exponential moving average (EMA).

S&P 500 3 month daily chart

On Friday June 21 the market pulled back to the 100 period and then closed above it. The candlestick on Friday shows indecision among investors. I am still holding Spy Put Options from Thursday’s purchase and the market direction portfolio is still holding shares from the Ultra Short ETFs.  To try to figure out what to expect on Monday let’s look at the closing market direction technical indicators.

100 period EMA

Market Direction Closing For June 20 2013

The S&P 500 closed at 1,592.43 up 4.24 and the Dow closed at 14,799.40 up 41.08. The NASDAQ closed at 3,357.25 down 7.39.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of June 21 2013

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of June 21 2013 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for June 24 2013.

Market Direction Technical Analysis June 21 2013

For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is continuing to move lower and remains negative.

For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on May 24. The sell signal is strongly negative.

The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

The Ultimate Oscillator is oversold and shows a slight bounce from Friday.

Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change is negative for the nineth day and is moving lower indicating a lack of conviction among buyers.

For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is signaling that the market direction is down and is reaching oversold.

For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is indicating that the market direction is lower and is extremely oversold.

Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for June 24 2013

As you can see from the market direction technical indicators the bounce on Friday was only technical in nature. None of the market direction technical indicators have turned positive. Even the oversold Fast Stochastic is signaling lower market direction ahead. That said, often a market that is so extremely oversold can bounce back stronger than investors are prepared for. In my opinion any bounce will be an opportunity to purchase Spy Put Options. I can though afford to be wrong on my Spy Put Options as I have built up a considerable amount of income already.

So while the market direction technical indicators all point to lower prices for the start of the week, I personally think we could see another attempt at a bounce during Monday and then lower prices either later in the same day or Tuesday. The market rally from January though is over in my opinion. I will be following the strategy I outlined in this bear market and corrections article entitled “How I Handle A Correction” from the members website to benefit from this market downturn as we head into July.

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