TSX Market Direction Outlook For Aug 10 2015

TSX Market Direction Outlook For Aug 10 2015

The outlook for Friday for the TSX was for a lower close but not a major sell-off by any stretch. Indeed the close was 103.21 points lower at 14,302.70 but the big news was the index pushing to 14,458.11 intraday in an effort to retake the 14500 support level. The rally failed and the TSX is not set to take out the 14250 support level.

Advance Declines For August 7 2015

Volume dropped by 50 million shares on Friday to 246 million. 68% of that volume was trading lowerust 27% trading higher.

Market Direction Technical Analysis for Aug 7 2015

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Aug 7 2015 on the TSX and view the market direction outlook for Aug 10 2015.

TSX Market Direction Technical Analysis for Aug 7 2015

TSX Market Direction Technical Analysis for Aug 7 2015

Stock Chart Comments:

The index almost managed to recover the 14500 level but the intraday rally failed and the index closed below 14500. The 200 day is not on top of the 100 and 50 day moving averages which is a strong sell signal for the TSX. The moving average to be watching now is the 20 day which presently is moving lower. On Friday the TSX closed below the 20 day as well.

Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is barely positive and falling.

MACD: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on July 31 and that buy signal is still active on Friday.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the TSX chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling.

Rate Of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The Rate Of Change is perhaps one of the best market direction indicators for picking inflection points. The rate of change is negative and continues to move sideways which indicates a lack of clear direction for the markets..

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is signaling down for stocks.

Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month TSX chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is signaling down for stocks as well.

TSX Outlook For Aug 10 2015

The TSX should fall through the 14250 level on Monday although I am expecting a rally at some point in the morning. The TSX looks like it is heading to the 14000 level sometime this week.

Medium Term Trend

The Medium Term Trend is down. The trend will change to up after two closes above 15000.


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Disclaimer: There are risks involved in all investment strategies and investors can and do lose capital. Trade at your own risk. Stocks, options and investing are risky and can result in considerable losses. None of the strategies, stocks or information discussed and presented are financial or trading advice or recommendations. Everything presented and discussed are the author’s own trade ideas and opinions which the author may or may not enter into. The author assumes no liability for topics, ideas, errors, omissions, content and external links and trades done or not done. The author may or may not enter the trades mentioned. Some positions in mentioned stocks may already be held or are being adjusted.

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