Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 6 2023 – All About The Fed – Beige Book

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Tue Sep 5 2023 the SPX spent much of the day trying to push higher above 4500 but kept revisiting the 4500 level. Volumes were somewhat low at 3.9 billion shares traded and each spike off 4500 found ready sellers. Concern over rising oil prices pressured those investors who believe inflation is being brought under control and the Fed is done raising rates. Instead, rising rates mean more inflation is likely, especially if oil prices remain elevated for a period of several months. That could mean the Fed will raise rates higher still. That sent stocks lower across the board. The final 15 minutes saw stocks face large quantities of sell orders which at the close had turned the S&P lower by 18.94 to end the day at 4496.83. The index closed at the low of the day.

The NASDAQ was positive for almost the entire day until into the close as the SPX sold lower, tech stocks followed in the final few minutes of the day. The NASDAQ closed down just 10 points to 14020.

On Wednesday investors get the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:oo PM. Often the Fed’s Beige Book has seen large swings in the market, both higher and lower.

Let’s review the SPX index from Tue Sep 5 2023 to see what to expect for Wed Sep 6 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Sep 5 2023

The index closed above the all major moving averages for a fifth day which remains bullish. The 21 day continued below the 50 day for a down signal.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish and the 50 day is also climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band however is clinging to the 100 day which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways, unchanged. This is bearish.. This indicates a mixed outlook for Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 5 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 6 2023 

The technical indicators are turning bearish once again. The rise in the price of oil concerns investors worried about rising interest rates and inflation. The technical indicators are primarily pointing lower for Wednesday.

With rising oil in the picture again, Wednesday will see investors take positions shortly before 2:00 PM when the Fed’s Beige Book will be released.

I will be putting together a trade ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book using the SPY ETF. I will post it prior to 2:00 PM.

The close could see stocks move higher, but for now, the technical indicators are pointing to a lower close for Wednesday with or without the Fed’s Beige Book.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week has less economic reports but on Wednesday, investors get the Fed’s Beige Book which often can produce a temporary swing in the market.

Wednesday:

8:30 Trade Deficit is expected to fall to -68.3 billion slightly worse than last month’s -$62.3 billion.

9:45 S&P final services PMI is expected to fall to 50 from last month’s 51.

10:00 ISM services is expected to be unchanged at 52.7%

2:00 Release of Fed’s Beige Book.

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