Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 5 2018 – Sideways and Lower

Tue Sep 4 2018 saw the S&P move primarily sideways, staying in a range from 2885 to 2900 or roughly 15 points. By the close, the index was down slightly less than 5 points to close just below 2900 at 2896.72.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Sep 4 2018 

The S&P closed below the Upper Bollinger Band on Tuesday and left behind a bearish candlestick for Wednesday.

All the major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish. The 21 day moving average is also rising. The chart would indicate that at present, there is some weakness for the next couple of days but a bounce, probably off the 2 day moving average should be expected.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 4 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Aug 24 2018. The up signal continues to dominate although it is weaker.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

2830 is light support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support.

2700 is support.

2675 is light support.

2650 is light support

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support.

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Sep 5 2018 

For Wed Sep 5 2018, the technical indicators are not changes and continue to point to further weakness for the S&P. None of the readings though they are weak, point to any kind of large drop. Instead the market continues to look like it will trade sideways heading into Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers.

Wed Sep 5 2018 looks weak with the indicators pointing to more sideways action but with a bias slightly lower.

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