Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 30 2020 – Choppy Primarily Sideways

On Tuesday investors were unable to break through the 50 day moving average and closed lower by half a percent at 3335. Let’s review the close on Tue Sep 29 2020.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Sep 29 2020 

On Tuesday the index slipped and closed below the 50 day moving average. The closing candlestick was bearish for the final day of September.

The Upper Bollinger Band is falling sharply lower which is bearish. The Lower Bollinger Band however is continuing to hold the 3200 level which is neutral at present.

The 21 day is continuing to fall and almost ready to fall below the 50 day moving average.

The 50 period moving average is turning lower and needs to be watched this week for any further sell signal.

The index has now been trading below the 21 day moving average for 16 straight (trading) days without being able to climb back above it. This remains a strong bearish signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing. There are still 6 up signals and three down signals. The SPX chart is bearish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 29 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Sep 4. On Tuesday the down signal was weaker.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3600 is resistance

3500 is resistance

3450 is resistance

3400 is resistance

3375 is resistance

3300 was support

3275 is support

3200 is support

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is support

2975 is light support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Sep 30 2020 

For Wednesday the majority of the technical indicators are dipping lower although the Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place for the second day.

The losses on Tuesday were small and the index closed just below the 50 day moving average. There is still buying interest. The technical signal changes are more dips than predicting a strong move lower.

Friday we get the September non-farm payroll numbers. We could see a rally on Thursday in anticipation of those numbers but for Wednesday a choppy sideways move looks more likely.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 8 2024 – Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks took a breather from the recent rally. The S&P ended the day up 7 points to 5187. The NASDAQ closed lower down 16 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 7 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 7 2024 discuss the outlook following the latest up signals from the technical indicators. There are a number of ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue May 7 2024 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks continued their advance. The only dip of any size was just before 12:30 when the SPX fell almost to 5150 which brought in ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 6 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 6 2024 discuss the outlook for the second week of May following Friday's April non-farm payroll numbers. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 6 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Up Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday the jobs report came in weaker than expected. With investors believing this could bring some relief to interest rates for the Fed, investors poured ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 3 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 3 2024 discuss the expectations for April's unemployment report. There are a large number of trades outlined for today. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 3 2024 – All About The April Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors pushed stocks higher for the second time this week, ahead of Friday's April jobs report. The S&P gained gained 45 points to close ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024 discuss the FOMC interest rate decision and Fed's news conference. There are a large number of trades ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 2 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors moved stocks higher during the Fed's news conference but then sold those same stocks lower in the final half hour in a wild ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of May. There are a large number of trades outlined for ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 1 2024 – Bounce But Lower – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw stocks tumble as investors decided to take profits from the recent rally. Economic reports on Tuesday did not favor the Fed cutting interest rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the month and the start of May. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the index trade choppily in a sideways trend until the final hour when the SPX dipped down below 5100 but then found buyers and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024 discuss the outlook for the final week of April. There are a large number of trades outlined ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw investors continue the rally despite the PCE number showing far more weakness than expected. The rally on Friday though saw lower volumes which could ....... Read More