Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday was another choppy day as markets drifted ahead of the Fed’s decision on interest rates due out on Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
The SPX rose 1 points on 3.5 billion shares for a third straight day of the same volume.
The NASDAQ rose 36 points to 17,628 on higher volume of 5 billion shares.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Sep 17 2024 to see what to expect on Wed Sep 18 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Sep 17 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has shadows, top and bottom, which signals uncertainty for Wednesday which is to be expected due to the Fed’s interest rate decision due today.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5575. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5513. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5405 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5185 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day moving average and climbing which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to rise. This is bullish.
The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week is high. It’s anyone’s guess which way stocks will head out of the squeeze but at present the daily candlesticks are following the Lower Bollinger Band higher. Often that signals a higher move coming or at the very least, a move higher into the Fed’s interest rate announcement.
The S&P chart is neutral to bullish for Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 17 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. The up signal was stronger on Tuesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is nearing overbought levels.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is at overbought levels.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is at overbought levels.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Wednesday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5540 is resistance |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 18 2024
Wednesday will be all about the Fed’s decision on interest rates. I expect the morning will open slightly higher, drift higher toward the 2:0 PM announcement but then it is anyone’s guess which way the index will move. The initial reaction depending on the size of the rate cut could be up and then down as some investors may “sell the news” and take profits.
If there is no rate cut todat which is highly unlikely, the index will fall.
The technical indicators aside from the Fed’s decision on interest rates are primarily bullish. That could mean if there is some selling after the rate cut is announced, it may not last longer than a day.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey came in much higher than expected at 11.5 versus -4.7 prior.
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales rose 0.1% surprising analysts
8:30 Retail sales minute autos slipped further than estimated to 0.1%
9:15 Industrial production rose to 0.8% which was higher than estimates of 0.2%
9:15 Capacity utilization was slightly higher at 78.0%
10:00 Business inventories rose to 0.4%
10:00 Home builder confidence rose to 41 from 39
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts for August are expected to rise to 1.31 million from 1.24 million
8:30 Building permits for August are estimated at 1.41 million up slightly from 1.4 million
2:00 FOMC interest-rate decision announced
2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference