Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Sep 16 2025 stocks gyrated but stayed in a fairly tight trading range throughout the day as investors prepared for the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wed Sep 17 2025, at 2:00 PM.
The SPX fell 8 points to close at 6606 on 5.4 billion shares traded. 48% of the volume was moving higher by the close along with 45% of all stocks.
The NASDAQ ended lower by just 14 points to 22,333. Volume slipped to 8.7 billion shares traded. 59% of all volume was being traded higher with48% of all stocks rising by the close.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Tue Sep 16 2025 to see what we should expect for Wed Sep 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Sep 16 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday. The closing candlestick is also signaling the index is overbought.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6486 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6399 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6217 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6011 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher.
The SPX chart is bullish for Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 16 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Tue Sep 16 2025 the up signal was stronger.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling from being overbought.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close is expected for Wed Sep 17 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 17 2025
Tuesday will see stocks attempt a rally early morning and then drift sideways into 1:30. Another rise into 2:00 PM and the Fed’s rate decision, is expected. Then a higher close to end the day.
If the Fed holds interest rates steady we will see stocks sell lower into the close. Today is a pivotal day for stocks. The news conference is as important as the actual interest rate announcement.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Empire State manufacturing survey fell sharply to -9.7 which is far deeper than estimated
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales rose to 0.6%, well above estimates
8:30 Import price index is estimated at -0.2% versus 0.4% prior
9:15 Industrial production was stronger than estimated, at 0.3%
9:15 Capacity utilization came in as estimated at 77.4%, up slightly from 77.3% prior.
10:00 Business inventories came in as estimated at 0.2%.
10:00: Home builder confidence index came in slightly lower at 32 versus 33 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts are estimated at 1.37 million, down from 1.43 million prior
8:30 Building permits are estimated to rise to 1.37 million up from 1.35 million prior
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision is widely expected to be a quarter point decrease
2:30 Fed Chair Powell holds his news conference