Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 11 2019 – Choppy, Dip Possible But Up

Tuesday saw investors continue to move out of specific sectors and into others, particularly the financial stocks which are having their best rally in months.

The 2960 level was tested and for now, held up. The index closed above it and flat on the day with little change from Monday’s close.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Sep 10 2019 

The 21 day moving average is continuing to climb despite the choppy trading. That is the most important aspect of the chart below.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bullish for Wednesday.

The 50 day moving average is still falling but the 100 day moving average and 200 day are back climbing.

The S&P chart still looks almost unchanged as we head into Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 10 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive..

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thurs Aug 29. The up signal was strong on Tuesday.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising and heading into overbought readings.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a weak down signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is sideways or unchanged and overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also sideways indicating little change in prices should be expected.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is light resistance

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Sep 11 2019 

The market is overbought although it has not been climbing. Monday and Tuesday have been high volume days as investors are “switching” stock sectors which is increasing volumes being traded and this is creating overbought signals.

Tuesday saw the 2960 value tested. Wednesday could see dips but not as deep and the outlook should begin to change to being higher.

Watch for some stocks that have been hammered recently, such as Visa, MasterCard, McDonalds and others to try to bounce on Wednesday.

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