Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday saw Treasury yields slip early in the day and oil prices dropped and markets rallied, recovering all of Monday’s losses. By the close though the 10 year Treasury was above 4% at 4.02%.
The S&P rose 55 points closing at 5751 where the SPX had ended on Friday Oct 4. Volume was lower again at 3.4 billion and down volume still outpaced up volume at 56% to 42%.
The NASDAQ closed up 259 points to close at 18,183. Declining stocks made up 50% of all stocks despite the large gain i n the index. Volume on the NASDAQ was higher by 400 million shares, rising to 5.7 billion.
The rally was strong and recovered all of Monday’s losses.
Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Tue Oct 8 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Oct 9 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Oct 8 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average nit still below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is indicating Tuesday was a bounce.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5681. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5564. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5486 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5258 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is back above the 100 day moving average band climbing toward the 50 day. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling lower. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze appears likely this week and if the rally on Tuesday is a signal, the outlook would be higher for the index as it moves out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Wednesday with just the closing candlestick being bearish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Oct 8 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and back positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 3 2024. On Tuesday, the rally eroded much of the down signal. The histogram shows the large loss of strength to the down signal as of Tuesday’s close.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is moving more sideways than up or down and has been in a tight sideways range for several days.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has aa up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which signals we could see some weakness on Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5680 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5575 is support |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 9 2024
Tuesday’s rally was strong enough and broad-based enough to signal that the down move we saw on Monday could end up being a one day event. Even with the closing candlestick on Tuesday signaling that the day was a bounce, the outlook is still for a higher close even with dips likely throughout the day.
Tuesday saw many investors jump into stocks that had sold lower on Monday as many investors missed the rally on Friday and wanted into stocks. On Wednesday we will probably see dips quickly bought as the outlook remains higher for the SPX. In the afternoon at 2:00 investors get the latest FOMC minutes. There are not expected to be any surprises. Analysts believe he FOMC minutes will not impact market direction today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was much lower than expected at $8.9 billion versus $13.2 billion estimated and $26.6 billion prior.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose slightly to 91.5
8:30 Trade deficit rose to -70.4 billion from – $70.8 billion
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories is estimated unchanged at 0.2%
2:00 Minutes of Fed’s September FOMC meeting