Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Oct 29 2025 investors got the interest rate cut that most expected from the Fed. However the Fed turned hawkish and almost scolded those who believe another rate cut is on the table heading into December. Instead the Fed made it clear that there is no set plan to continue with rate reductions. The sunk the rally that had been underway ahead of the 2:00 PM interest rate announcement.
The SPX ended the day unchanged at 6890. Volume rose by 600 million shares to 6.4 billion. 69% of all stocks on the SPX were falling by the close.
The NASDAQ managed to rise 131 points to 23,958. Volume slipped by 300 million shares to 10.6 billion. By the close 67% of all stocks were falling but the index still ended higher.
The VIX index closed higher at 16.92. After hours on Wednesday, a number of stocks reported mixed earnings including Alphabet, META, Microsoft, NOW, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and others. Some stocks plunged while others soared but they will affect the open on Thursday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Oct 29 2025 to see what to expect for market direction on Thu Oct 30 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Oct 29 2025
The index closedat the Upper Bollinger Band. This is a bullish and an overbought signal.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday. There are two long shadows at the close on Wednesday. They indicate both a dip and a spike should be expected on Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6726 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6622 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6445 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6196 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
The SPX chart is bullish but the close back at the 21 day moving average for Thursday is an overbought signal for inve4stors. All moving averages are above 6100 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 29 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive. It is at overbought levels.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Oct 24 2025. On Wednesday the up signal gained strength.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place but is on the verge of a down signal. It is also overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and signaling overbought.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling and signaling a lower day is expected. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 30 2025
Fed chair Powell at his news conference on Wednesday made it clear there is no timetable or guarantee of further rate cuts this year, after issuing a rate cut on Wed Oct 29 2025.
As a result the morning will open lower as investors decide on the outlook for Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Meta Stock (META), Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock (CMG) and a few other companies that reported lower than estimated earnings. I think any dip in most of the stocks this morning will find ready buyers and I do not expect weakness in any of the stocks mentioned will last long. The morning therefore will open weaker but the end of the day will be neutral to higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports will be released today due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index rose 1.6%
10:00 Consumer confidence rose to 94.6
Wednesday:
10:00 Pending home sales are estimated to have fallen to 1.0% from 4.0% prior
Other reports are not expected due to the government shut down.
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision released
2:30 Fed Chair Powell press conference
Thursday: