Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Oct 21 2025 stocks attempted to rally until by 1:00 the SPX was above 6750. With gold and silver prices plunging and bond yields falling investors took profits and the SPX ended the day where it had started at 6735, flat on the day. Volume rose by 500 million shares with 53% of all volume to the downside and 42% of stocks on the SPX falling. Precious metals saw their single worst day since April 2013.
The NASDAQ also tried to advance but in the end fell 36 points to end the day at 22,953. The index continues to have trouble moving convincingly above 23,000.
The VIX index closed lower again at 17.87 despite stocks giving back the day’s morning rally. After hours Netflix posted an earnings miss blaming a Brazilian tax issue. The stock fell and that may weigh on stocks on Wednesday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Tue Oct 21 2025 to see what investors should expect on Wed Oct 22 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Oct 21 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is signaling bearish for Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6679 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6578 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6398 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6158 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is unlikely at present.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Wednesday but the closing candlestick is warning we could see a lower day on Wednesday. All moving averages are above 6100 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Oct 21 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 9 2025. On Tuesday the down signal lost more strength. We could see an up signal this week from the MACD indicator.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Wednesday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling. It is signaling a lower day on Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 22 2025
Many investors were puzzled by gold and silver’s decline which also affected many mining stocks. Many investors took the decline as a signal that a change is coming to the rally, but everything remains a guess as to just what that change might be. Despite this investors took profits on Tuesday and as gold and silver fell further, more investors joined in the sell-off of the precious metals.
The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) technical indicator is continuing to lose strength to its down signal and we could see an up signal issued if the SPX continues to move sideways or recovers back higher. If Wednesday is lower however, it may add strength back to the down signal.
Netflix dropped after hours and that could impact stocks, certainly in the morning on Wednesday.
For Wednesday the outlook is mixed but with a lower close expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators for September are expected to rise to -0.3% from -0.5% prior. This data may not get released due to the government shutdown.
Tuesday:
9:00 Fed government Waller speech
Wednesday:
4:00 Fed governor Barr speech