Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday warnings from ASML Holding (ASML) saw its stock plunge 16% and drag down the semiconductor stocks. As well UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) fell 8% losing $49.11 and weighing on the Dow Jones Index and health care. This in turn caused more selling in a wider group of stocks until by the close, the index had given back all of Monday’s rally.
The SPX saw volume jump to almost 4 billion shares traded with 56% of trading volume moving lower. 49% of all stocks were falling while 49% were rising. This was the highest volume since Oct 1. The index lost 44 points and closed at 5815.
The NASDAQ fell 187 points to close at 18,315 giving back all of Monday’s 159 point gain. Volume rose to 6.7 billion shares traded, the highest volume since Sep 20. 58% of all volume was being traded lower and 49% of all stocks on the index were falling.
Let’s review the technical indicators from Tue Oct 15 2024 to see what they expect for Wed Oct 16 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Oct 15 2024
The index slipped on Tuesday and closed well above the 21 day moving average but just below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bearish but also signals a bounce is likely either to start the day or in the morning trading.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5736. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5606. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5517 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 52 85 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and climbing. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher. The latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze is sending stocks higher.
The S&P chart is bullish for Wednesday but the closing candlestick is signaling a lower close is likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Oct 15 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Oct 10 2024. On Tuesday the up signal weakened.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is at overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which signals we could see a lower day on Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5815 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5790 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5680 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5625 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5575 is support |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 16 2024
For Wednesday the closing candlestick is signaling a lower close is likely even if there is a bounce. The technical indicators also weakened, including the MACD indicator which saw its up signal weaken.
Further earnings are being released before the open today which should help support the present rally. Among them is Morgan Stanley Stock (MS) and Abbott Labs Stock (ABT). Both of these represent different sectors of the economy and positive results will help the bulls.
For Wednesday a bounce is probable but overall the technical indicators are warning that Wednesday will end lower. That means any rally today should be used to lock in profits.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
8:30 Empre State manufacturing survey came in worse than expected at -11.9, well below estimated of 3.0 and the prior reading of 11.5
Wednesday:
8:30 Import price index is expected to be unchanged at -0.3%