Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Sep 30 2025 stocks spent some time moving sideways but in the afternoon began to climb. The close saw stocks higher to end the month of September with an excellent gain.
The SPX rose 27 points to end the day at 6688. Volume rose to 6.1 billion. There were 123 new highs and 45 new lows. By the close 51% of all stocks were rising. For the month of September the SPX was up 228 points for a gain of 3.5%.
The NASDAQ rose 68 points to end the day at 22,660. Volume was 9.2 billion. By the close, 48% of all stocks on the index were rallying. For September the NASDAQ added 1204 points for a gain of 4.9%, an excellent gain.
When September had started, most analysts were looking for a correction and when stocks slipped part way through the month, analysts had anticipated a 5% minimum pullback. Instead stocks regained their footing and stunned analysts with impressive gains.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Tue Sep 30 2025 to see if stocks can continue to advance on Wed Oct 1 2025..
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Sep 30 2025
The index rallied higher and closed above the 21 day moving average but below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday. The closing shadow on the candlestick signals some dips are likely on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6584 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6474 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6296 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6071 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for the start of October. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 30 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Sep 25 2025. On Tue Sep 30 2025 the down signal was almost gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is no longer overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling a higher close is likely today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Oct 1 2025
For the first trading day of October, the technical indicators are signaling a higher close today but trading will be choppy. We could see another weak morning but then when stocks fail to fall, buyers could return for the afternoon and close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Pending home sales were much stronger than estimated, coming in at 4.0%
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index dipped more than expected, falling to 1.8%
9:45 Chicago business barometer was lower than estimated, coming in at 40.6
10:00 Job openings are rose to 7.2 million.
10:00 Consumer confidence came in at 94.2.
Wednesday:
8:30 ADP employment is estimated to fall to 45,000 from 54,000 prior
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated to remain unchanged at 52.0.
10:00 Construction spending is estimated to have fallen to -0.2%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is estimated to rise to 49.0%