Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tuesday investors sold the tech sector with an eye on the AI names. In particular Palantir Tech Stock (PLTR) which trades at a lofty 446.1 times price to earnings. They reported excellent earnings on Monday after the close. The stock fell $16.44 for a 7.9% loss and ending at $190.74. With many tech stocks falling the NASDAQ lost 486 points to close at 23,348. This was the worst day for the index since Oct 10 when it fell 820 points.
The SPX ended the day down 80 points at 6771 with 67% of all stocks falling. Volume was lower at 5.8 billion shares.
The question now for investors is whether this is the start of a correction or a one or two-day blip before stocks continue to climb.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Nov 4 2025 to see what to expect for market direction on Wed Nov 5 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 4 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. It closed at the low of the day. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday but with a shadow which indicates a dip lower is expected perhaps below the 21 day.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6745 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6654 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6474 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6221 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average but trending sideways which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish.
The SPX chart is mixed with more bearish signals than we saw any day last week.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 4 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and only slightly positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Oct 24 2025. On Tue Nov 4 2025 the up signal was pretty much gone. We should see an unconfirmed down signal on Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is no longer overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling sharply, signaling a lower close is expected. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 5 2025
For Wed Nov 5 2025 the technical signals negative and showing the index has further to fall. A morning bounce attempt is likely but the index is positioned to close lower on Wednesday. I am expecting the SPX to fall to the 21 day and attempt a bounce which will fail. The next stop for stocks I think will be down to the 50 day moving average and then a more serious bounce will be seen this week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Durable goods orders – No reports will be released Monday due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Tuesday:
No reports will be released today due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected to rise to 22,000 from -32,000 prior
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated at 55.2 but may not get reported due to the government shutdown.
10:00 ISM services is estimated at 50.5%, up from 50.0% prior. This may not get reported due to the government shutdown.