Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 17 2021 – Weakness With Deeper Dips Expected

Tuesday saw the S&P move above 4700 and close at it for a gain of 18 points in somewhat lackluster trading.

The NASDAQ meanwhile rose 120 points, closing at 15,973 on better volume than we saw on the SPX.

Let’s review Tuesday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Nov 16 2021 

The close on Tuesday left behind a bullish candlestick for Wednesday. Note though that the Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is still dipping lower.

The 21, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing. This is bullish. The 50 day is not climbing which is bearish.

For Wednesday the chart is still more bearish than bullish for a fifth trading day.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 16 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Oct 13 2021 . On Tuesday the up signal was just 0.22 or basically neutral.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4700 is resistance

4655 is resistance

4600 is resistance

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is support

4490 is support

4475 is support

4450 is support

4400 is support

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Nov 17 2021 

For Wednesday there is more weakness evident as shown in the technical indicators. MACD has lost its up signal and on Wednesday we could see a down signal generated.

Wednesday will see deeper dips although there is still a chance for another slightly higher close. Overall though stocks have lost a lot of momentum to the upside and there is a better chance for a negative to flat close on Wednesday even if some of the big retail stocks provide higher than expected earnings.

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