Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday the week long rally finally ran into too many sellers and stocks slipped lower.
The SPX fell 17 points and closed at 5984. Volume was 4.4 billion shares with 75% of all volume being traded lower as investors took profits.
The NASDAQ fell 17 points to close at 19,281. Volume was high at 8.1 billion. 67% of al lstocks on the index were falling.
Let’s review the technical signals from Tue Nov 12 2024 to see what they predict for Wed Nov 13 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 12 2024
The index fell below the Upper Bollinger Band and closed at the lows of the day. This is bearish for Wednesday.
The closing candlestick signaling stocks are still overbought and investors should prepare for further dips.
The 21 day moving average rose and is at 5846. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5744. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5627 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5387 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish as the Bollinger Bands widen which signals a higher move is still ahead for the index.
The S&P chart is a bit bearish for Wednesday as it is still signaling stocks are very overbought and due to dip back at any time.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 12 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 7 2024. The up signal was stronger Tuesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which indicates a lower day or a flat day for Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is rsistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5815 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 13 2024
On Tuesday, losses were minimal but the weakness spread quickly through stocks. Often this signals further downside should be expected. As well for Wednesday the technical indicators are signaling that the overbought condition of stocks will result in some further dips today. A lower close is highly likely but it will not end the rally at present.
On Wednesday we get the latest Consumer Price Index reports which could result in some choppy trading today.
I am expecting more choppy trading and a lower close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Veterans Day. Bond market is closed.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose higher than expected to 93.7 from 91.5
Wednesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated to rise slightly to 2.6%
8:30 Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%