Tue Nov 12 2019 saw the indexes open higher and climb. The S&P pushed just beyond 3100 for the first time before dipping back. News that President Trump discussed more tariffs should no deal be reached with China weighed on stocks in the afternoon. The S&P closed the day well off the highs but at 3091.84, it is still just 9 points from the 3100 valuation.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Nov 12 2019
The SPX chart is bullish except for the closing candlestick which is bearish for Wednesday.
3030 is light support.
All the major moving averages are climbing including the 50 and 21 day moving averages. The 21 day moving average is moving quickly and is now above the 3030 valuation. The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.
The two buy signals from September are still in place.
Overall the chart remains bullish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 12 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was weaker on Tuesday but still present.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and sideways.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought but with a neutral signal again on Tuesday.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is overbought and moving sideways.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also moving sideways indicating no change in prices should be expected.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3100 is resistance
3030 in light support
3000 is support
2960 is light support
2950 was light support
2900 is light support
2860 is light support
2840 is support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Nov 13 2019
The technical indicators are continuing to lose momentum and those that were pointing up and primarily pointing sideways, meaning little change is expected.
The index is still looking for a catalyst to push it definitively above 3100. Despite this, there are no technical indicators pointing to a move back down. Only the closing candlestick on Tuesday warned of growing weakness.
On Wednesday Fed Chair Powell testifies in front of Congress. I am not expecting anything new from his testimony and I doubt it will be a market moving event.
The outlook remains positive but sideways, unless there is concrete word of the trade deal with China being a lot closer to actually happening.
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