Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tuesday the rally slowed on the S&P and NASDAQ indexes but not the Dow Index which reached another new all-time high.
The S&P rose 14 points to close at 6846. Volume was lower by 500 million shares to 5.0 billion. 63% of all stocks were rising by the close slightly less than we saw Monday by the close.
The NASDAQ fell back as once again investors left tech names and shifted capital to other sectors like health care. The NASDAQ slipped 58 points to 23,468 on only 8 billion shares traded, a drop of 1.6 billion shares from Monday’s trading. 53% of stocks were still rising by the close which was less than Monday’s 65%.
With the government shutdown expected to end shortly, Monday’s big jump looks a bit shakier as of Tuesday’s close.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Nov 11 2025 to see the outlook for Wed Nov 12 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Nov 11 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages for a second day which is bullish despite being below the Upper Bollinger Band.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but short shadows on the closing candlestick indicate we could see a test of the 21 day moving average and a potential bounce from there.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6770 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6686 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6504 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6249 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending sideways which is bearish.
The SPX chart has more bullish than bearish signals for Wednesday but a retest of the 21 day looks likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Nov 11 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wed Nov 5. On Tue Nov 11 2025 the down signal was weaker for a second straight day.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling, signaling Wednesday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Nov 12 2025
For Wed Nov 12 2025 the technical signals are a bit mixed with a few slipping back to down signals. The majority though are still showing higher but the momentum signal is falling again and the Rate Of Change is also falling. Both indicate Wednesday will end lower. Declining volume on Tuesday is also a concern. We need to see volume pick up again. However the remaining indicators are pointing to a choppy day of trading with dips likely but a higher close on Wednesday.
Bonds are back trading on Wednesday after the Veterans Day closure on Tuesday. Often the morning can be choppy with swings after bonds begin trading. The close however still looks positive.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports to be released
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index slipped to 98.2 from 98.8
Wednesday:
Fed officials are at various speaking engagements today from 9:20 to 4:00 PM. This could add a bit of choppiness to Wednesday’s trading but most investors expect a rate cut in December and not much from Fed officials will change that outlook at present.