Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue May 27 2025 stocks rallied hard with the SPX up 118 points, the best single day since May 12. The S&P closed at 5921 and left behind some indications that the index could move above 6000 shortly. Volume was 5.5 billion with 96 new 52 week highs versus just 14 new lows. 85% of all stocks were moving higher.
The NASDAQ climbed 462 points to close at 19,199. Tuesday was the largest one day advance since May 12. Volume was a little low at 9.1 billion but 83% of all trading volume was moving higher and 70% of stocks were advancing.
Tuesday’s rally didn’t impress all the technical indicators as you will see below, but there is enough strength to anticipate the index will move higher this week.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Tue May 27 2025 to see what we should expect for Wed May 28 2025 as investors await NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday after the close.
Thank you – Memorial Day Membership Sale
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Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue May 27 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. It is back moving higher after Tuesday’s rally, which is evident in the SPX chart below.
The closing candlestick is bullish but suggests there could be a dip or two on Wednesday but a higher close is expected.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5760 which is bullish. At the close on Friday Mar 23, the 21 day moved further above the 100 day. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5590 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5716 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5664 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning down which is bearish and could end up moving into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.
For Wed May 28 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish and a higher close is expected.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue May 27 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Tue May 27 2025 he up signal is almost gone. If it falls further we should see a down signal from the MACD indicator.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal at the close.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising sharply.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close for Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5785 is resistance |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 28 2025
For Wed May 28 2025 not all the SPX technical indicators were impressed with Tuesday’s large rally. Momentum and the MACD indicators are both weak and could turn negative shortly. Despite this, the outlook is higher for the index on Wednesday, even if there are some dips, which are expected to be shallow and not last very long.
Wednesday after the close we get earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA) which is one of the most watched stocks in stock market history. The outlook could be mixed although many analysts still think the company will beat expectations. With their earnings to look forward to right after the close today, stocks are biased to the upside.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Holiday
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders fell less than expected by -6.3%
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index was better than estimated, coming in at 4.1%
10:00 Consumer confidence jumped past estimates and rose to 98, showing growing consumer confidence
Wednesday:
2:00 Minutes of FOMC May meeting are released. I expect this will be a non-event today.