Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 31 2021 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

On Tuesday the SPX had another choppy session. The index dipped below 3950 and rose above 3966 before closing down just 12 points at 3958.

There were some important technical changes on Tuesday. Let’s take a look.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Mar 30 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band on Tuesday continued to move higher which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is also moving higher which can be bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday.

The 21 day moving average is still above the 50 day moving average which is moving parallel to the 21 day.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

Overall the S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Mar 30 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative..

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Tue Mar 30 2021 the up signal was confirmed.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which normally indicates prices will not be changing by much on Wednesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4000 is resistance

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support and the 100 day is at this level

3700 is light support

3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.

3600 is strong support

3550 is support – The 200 day is at this level. A drop this low would be a 10% correction.

3500 is strong support

3450 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Mar 31 2021 

Another mixed technical outlook for Wednesday.

A confirmed up signal should assist in moving the index higher but the Rate Of Change indicator is advising that investors shouldn’t expect much change in prices.

The day looks like another choppy trading session but the close should be positive.

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