Prior Trading Day Summary:
I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any.
On Tuesday trading volume picked up as stocks fell for another day. The SPX closed near 5200 for the first actual test of support at this elevated level.
The SPX lost just 14 points to close at 5203. This is at the 5200 level which I wrote about in yesterday’s stock market outlook.
The NASDAQ lost 68 points to close at 16315.
We could see the SPX slip below 5200 and then attempt a bounce.
Let’s review the close on Tue Mar 26 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Mar 27 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Mar 26 2024
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 21 day moving average. This is still bullish for the index but is signaling weakness is building.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday but also indicates there could be a bounce.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5150 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5026, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4657 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and moving higher which is usually bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend. This is also bullish.
The S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish for Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Mar 26 2024 – Chart courtesy Trading View
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 21. On Tue Mar 26 2024 a new unconfirmed down signal was generated. The histogram is negative for Wednesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating Wednesday will see some dips and a possible bounce attempt.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024
For Wednesday stocks will stay under some selling pressure. However there remains a good chance for a bounce if the index first slips below 5200.
The technical indicators are shifting to bearish as a consensus.
On Wednesday there are no economic events to shift the SPX either way. Normally this favors the bulls.
The close could be higher on Wednesday especially if the index tests 5200 and attempts a bounce.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday we get durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Friday is a holiday but the PCE numbers are released at 8:30 and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:30.
Monday:
10:00 New home sales are estimated to be lower at 675,000
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods order are expected to rise to 1% from -6.2%
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to be unchanged at 106.5
Wednesday:
There are no economic events