Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday saw the broader market move higher but the Dow fall as stocks on their index saw many names pullback including Home Depot Stock (HD), Walmart Stock (WMT), Boeing Stock (BA), Nike Stock (NKE), McDonalds Stock (MCD) and more. This weighed on the Dow Jones which fell 299 points. The S&P however rose 21 points to 5469 while the NASDAQ rose 220 points, closing at 17717. On the S&P down volume was strong at 71% of all trades declining. The NASDAQ had 56% of all stocks falling.
Overall the outlook remains cautionary but Wednesday could still see a positive close.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Tue Jun 25 2024 to see what to expect on Wed Jun 26 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jun 25 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday, indicating dips are likely.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4930 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5156.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. This is bullish but note that the Lower Bollinger Band is still turning up, which needs to be watched for any change in the trend.
The S&P chart is less bearish for Wednesday than we saw on Monday’s close.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 25 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Jun 6 2024. On Tue Jun 25 2024 the up signal was weaker. The MACD histogram lost more strength. You can see in the chart that the move lower in strength is steady for a fourth straight day. There is a good chance we may see a down signal this week from MACD indicator.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling that Wednesday should end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is support |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jun 26 2024
For Wednesday there will be come dips in the SPX but some of the stocks, like Home Depot Stock (HD) should bounce today and that should see the index close higher on Wednesday.
NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) rallies on Tuesday. The stock needs to get above $130, otherwise the market will dip lower this week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest economic events this week are Durable Goods on Thursday and PCE numbers on Friday.
Monday:
No economic reports but 3 Fed officials are speaking today.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index was expected to be unchanged at 7.4% but came in at 7.2%
10:00 Consumer confidence was expected to be 100 but came in at 100.4
Wednesday:
10:00 New home sales are expected to rise to 640,000 from 634,000 prior.