Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Jun 17 2025 stocks moved lower as the fighting between Israel and Iran escalated. With concerns of further US involvement, stocks ended the day lower ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision announcement.
The S&P closed down 50 points to close below 6000 at 5982. Volume was 5 billion shares traded with 74% of all volume being traded lower.
The NASDAQ closed down 180 points to end the day at 19521. Volume was 8.8 billion shares with 68% of all stocks on the NASDAQ falling.
With the Fed’s next decision on interest rates due out on Wednesday, lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Tue Jun 17 2025 to see what we should expect for Wed Jun 18 2025/
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jun 17 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5949 which is bullish. The rise is slowing considerably. There are now just two down signals left from the March 7 and Mar 14.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5698 which is bullish. The 50 day is crossing above the 200 day today. This is a major up signal.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5784 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5707 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and rising. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher within the Bollinger Bands Squeeze which is bullish.
For Wed Jun 18 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but the closing candlestick is warning of a move lower today.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jun 17 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was much stronger at the close on Tue Jun 17 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Wednesday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jun 18 2025
For Wed Jun 18 2025 the technical indicators are all pointing lower for the index. The 50 day moving average is on the verge of moving above the 200 day. This is a major up signal but despite this, all the remaining signals are bearish.
On Wednesday we also get the Fed’s latest decision on interest rates. Analysts are 100% in agreement that the Fed will not lower interest rates today. With that in mind, there is a good chance stocks could slip lower after the Fed’s decision is released.
Overall there are more signals pointing lower for Wednesday. Any news that the conflict between Israel and Iran is ending will be positive for stocks. That is at present not the case. The day will end with the SPX lower on Wednesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey was worse than estimated coming in at -16
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales fell more than estimated to -0.9%
8:30 Import price index was flat at 0.0%
9:15 Industrial production was lower than estimated at -0.2%
9:15 Capacity utilization was lower than estimated at 77.4%77.7%
10:00 Business inventories came in as expected at 0.0%
10:00 Home builder confidence index was lower than expected coming in at 32
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts are estimated at 1.35 million, down from 1.36 million prior
8:30 Build permits are expected to come in at 1.42 million, up slightly from 1.41 million prior
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to slip slightly to 246,000
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision
2:30 Fed Chair Powell has a news conference
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