Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday investors tried a bounce at the start of the day but ran into sellers once again. That ended any chance of a positive close for the indexes.
The SPX closed down 27 points at 5436. The NASDAQ fell 222 points ending at 17147.
Let review the closing technical indicators from Tue Jul 30 2024 to see what the signals advise to expect on Wed Jul 31 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jul 30 2024
The index closedback at the 50 day moving average although intraday it was below it. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick signals the index is still oversold enough that a bounce could occur, especially if the Fed hints at a rate cut for September.
The 21 day moving average is turning lower which is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is slowing its climb which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5058 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5297 but its rise is starting to slow.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals a a higher close is likely.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish but is still signaling a chance for a positive close on Wednesday. A lot of the day will depend on the Fed in the afternoon.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 30 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling, negative and oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thur July 18. On Tue Jul 30 2024 the down signal was back gaining strength. Normally we should expect another bounce attempt with readings this negative.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising but negative. It is very oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is deeply oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative. It is oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged signaling Wednesday could end up flat.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5675 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5520 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 31 2024
For Wednesday the day will depend on the Fed’s announcement at 2:00 PM. Even if the chairman does not cut rates, he only has to signal that rate cuts could start as soon as September. That’s all the market will need to push higher. Until the Fed announcement at 2:00 PM I am expecting a sideways day and then a move higher closer to 2:00 PM. If the Fed does not give any hint of upcoming rate cuts, the index will sell lower.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No events scheduled.
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index fell to 6.8% as expected
10:00 Consumer Confidence came in stronger at 100.3
10:00 Job openings rose to 8.18 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment report is expected to show 150,000 openings
10:00 Pending home sales are expected to rise to 1% from -2.1% prior.
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision
2:30 Fed Chair Powell’s news conference