On Tuesday I had expected a sideways day with a morning dip and then a rally in the late afternoon for a higher close as investors anticipated a Fed interest rate cut on Wednesday. Instead there was more weakness than I expected and the S&P fell to 3000. That though brought in buyers and jumped the volume for trades for the day.
While Wednesday’s initial market direction will be all about the Fed’s decision, it is still worthwhile taking a look at the technical indicators as of the close on Tue Jul 30 2019.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Jul 30 2019
The SPX chart is reasonably bullish. The closing candlestick is one of indecision which seems perfect for Wednesday’s interest rate decision.
As well, you can clearly see the Bollinger Bands Squeeze now forming up. If the Fed cuts rate the index will push higher. Any delay in rate cut and the market will fall probably to 2900 over a period of several days.
The index closed above the 21 day moving average although it did tough that average in the morning dip.
The 50 day moving average is still above the 2900 level and the 100 day is almost ready to move above the 2900 level as well which will be bullish when it happens. The 200 day is approaching 2850.
All the major moving averages are moving higher which is bullish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 30 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday July 18. The down signal was a bit stronger on Tuesday.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive moving sideways.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a down signal in place and is indicating the market is becoming overbought.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling as the index is continuing to move primarily sideways.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3000 is resistance
2950 is light support
2900 is light support
2860 is better support
2830 is light support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jul 31 2019
The technical indicators are showing us a market that is stuck sideways as we head into Wednesday’s interest rate decision.
I had expected a move higher on Tuesday ahead of the interest rate cut. The lack of a move up shows the uncertainty among investors for whether the rate cut will occur in July.
I expect a rate cut but just a quarter point. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is indicating that such a rate cut will mean a move higher for the index. However a half percentage rate cut will see a much stronger rally up.
If there is a delay in the rate cut the index will slip to 2975 and then 2950. It will probably test 2900 within a day or two of no rate cut.
For Wednesday then, you can see that it really does depend on the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
