Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Jul 29 2025 stocks were under some selling pressure as investors prepare for the Fed latest interest rate decision on Wednesday and ahead of earnings from Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday after the close.
The S&P ended down 19 points at 6370. Volume was up by 500 million shares to 5.1 billion with 88 new 52 week highs and 25 new 52 week lows.
The NASDAQ ended the day down 80 points at 21,098 on 10.3 billion shares traded.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Jul 29 2025 to see what to expect for Wed Jul 30 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jul 29 2025
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band but not at a new high. This is still bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6286 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6108 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5983 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5836 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to rise and above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze commenced on Wednesday last week. At present the outlook is for stocks to move higher out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Wed Jul 30 2025.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of July 29 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Tue Jul 29 2025 the down signal gained some strength, removing the potential for a MACD up signal on Tuesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 30 2025
For Wednesday we could see some weakness in the morning and then sideways action leading to the Fed’s latest interest rate announcement at 2:00 PM. No change in interest rates is expected despite President Trump’s visit to the Fed building. Fed Chair Powell will definitely want to show the Fed’s independence and keeping interest rates unchanged will be his choice to show Fed’s independence.
The afternoon after the interest rate announcement should be slightly stronger and a positive day could emerge as investors prepare for earnings from a number of companies but in particular META and Microsoft. Unless both of those companies show better than estimated earnings, I expect Thursday will see their stocks being sold lower.
Wednesday then will show weakness but a higher close is still probable.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no events
Tuesday:
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods surprised strongly with $86.0 billion easily beating estimated of -$96.4 billion.
8:30 Advanced retail inventories icame in as estimated at 0.3%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories was stronger than estimated, at 0.2%
9:00 Case Shiller home price index was lower than estimated at 2.8%
10:00 Consume confidence was higher than estimated at 97.2
10:00 Job openings were lower than estimated at 7.4 million