Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday stocks started the day with low volume and a lower early morning. However when investors saw the 5450 level not break, they moved back into stocks.
The day had a strong finish with the SPX rising 34 points to close at 5509 for a new closing high. The NASDAQ also closed at a new high, rising 149 points to 18028.
It was a strong day that slightly changed the technical indicators for tomorrow.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Tue Jul 2 2024 to see what to expect on Wed Jul 3 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jul 2 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average.
The closing candlestick indicates stocks closed at the high for the day. Normally investors will take profits at the start of trading on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4957 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5187.
The Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 50 day moving average which is a bullish signal. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which indicates a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze may start this week or next.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 2 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri June 30 2024. On Tue Jul 2 2024 the down signal gained some strength but the histogram lost strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a slight down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is near overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Wednesday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5520 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 3 2024
For Wednesday the technical indicators are more mixed with a couple indicators pointing to a higher day and the rest pointing to a lower day. Overall I think stocks will end the day lower, by the close. Historically the day before the July 4th holiday has been positive over 90% of the time.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest economic event this week if the June Non-Farm Payroll numbers due out on Friday.
Monday:
9:45 S&P US Manufacturing PMI was expected at 51.7 but came in at 51.6
10:00 Construction spending was estimated to rise to 0.2% from -0.1% but was flat at -0.1%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing was expected to rise to 49.2% from 48.7% but came in at 48.5%
Tuesday:
10:00 Job openings are estimated at 7.9 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is estimated at 160,000
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to reach 233,000.
8:30 Trade deficit is estimated at -76.3 billion, higher by almost $2 billion
9:45 S&P final US services PMI is established unchanged at 55.1
10:00 Factory orders are expected to be 0.3%
10:00 ISM Services is establish at 0.3%.
2:00 Minutes of the Fed’s June FOMC meeting