Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 24 2019 – Higher Despite The DOJ

On Monday the index stayed in a tight trading pattern. It slipped in the morning to 2976.65 and rallied to 2990. The close was just below 2990 at 2986 and keeps the bias to the upside heading into Tuesday. Let’s look at Monday’s close to see if it supports a higher day on Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jul 22 2019 

The index stayed above the 21 day moving average all day on Tuesday. The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday.

The Bollinger Bands are now moving sideways which indicates no real change in market direction is expected.

The 200 day moving average is advancing further above the 2800 level which is bullish and the 100 day continues to move up as well. Note that the 50 day moving average is starting to climb again.

The chart is more bullish for Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 23 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum turned positive and rose further on Tuesday.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday July 18. The down signal was a bit weaker on Tuesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is back positive and climbing.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a down signal in place but is almost set to change to an up signal.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is better support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jul 24 2019 

For Wednesday we may see weakness at the start of the day thanks to the announcement later on Tuesday of a DOJ antitrust review of large tech companies. This may spook some investors. If it does, it will be another opportunity to setup some trades.

The technical indicators still have two sell signals but both are weaker after Tuesday’s close at the high of the day and above 3000. Wednesday will continue the rally higher.

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