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Stock Market Outlook For Wed Jul 23 2025 – Higher Thanks To Japan Trade Deal

Jul 23, 2025 | Stock Market Outlook

 

Prior Trading Day SummaryStock Market Outlook - Higher

On Tue Jul 22 2025 stocks closed slightly higher on the back of a choppy session. The S&P closed up 4 points to 6309. Volume was 5.7 billion, the single highest volume day since July 8. 75% of volume was being traded higher, despite the only 4 points up by the close.

The NASDAQ closed down 81 points to end the day at 20,892. Volume was an impressive 11 billion shares with 67% of all volume being traded higher. 60% of all stocks were rising on the NASDAQ despite the closing loss..

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Tue Jul 22 2025 to see what to expect for Wed Jul 23 2025.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jul 22 2025

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for the 12th day as it continues in a sideways trend.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6222 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6054 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5942 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5808 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling as a Bollinger Bands Squeeze commences on Wednesday. At present the outlook is for stocks to move higher, at least at the start of the latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Wednesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 22 2025


 

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Tue Jul 22 2025 the down signal gained strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close for Wednesday.

Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.


Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

6325 is resistance
6300 is resistance
6250 is resistance
6225 is resistance
6200 is resistance
6175 is resistance
6150 is resistance
6125 is resistance
6100 is resistance
6075 is resistance
6050 is support
6025 is support
6000 is support
5990 is support
5975 is support
5950 is support
5925 is support
5900 is support
5850 is support
5800 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 23 2025 

News overnight of a massive $500 billion trade deal with Japan will weigh heavily on stocks to start the day. A move higher or a higher close is expected.

The day will end higher on Wednesday.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Leading economic indicators were lower than estimated at -0.3%

Tuesday:

There are no economic reports today

Wednesday:

10:00 Existing home sales are expected to rise slightly to 229,000 from 221,000 prior

 

 

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