For Tuesday The indexes continue their decline with the S&P down 35 points to close at 3818 and the NASDAQ down 107.87 to close at 11,264.
As of Tuesday’s close the S&P has wiped out all of last week’s gains. The NASDAQ is still up 200 points from last week’s gains.
On Wednesday we get the Consumer Price Index for June which is expected to be higher at 1.1%. Year-over-year CPI is expected to come in at 8.8%. We also get the Beige Book at 2:00 PM.
All three of these could be market moving events and definitely worth watching for swings in the SPX to do a few SPY trades.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tuesday to see what they are predicting for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Jul 12 2022
On Tuesday the closing candlestick is bearish and closed at the 21 day moving average. Often we can expect a bounce off the 21 day moving average but the mood of investors is poor and with inflation reports due out, the outlook is lower.
The Upper Bollinger Band continues collapsing and is below the 50 day. This is bearish. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is likely starting tomorrow. The squeeze looks set to send the S&P lower.
All the moving averages are falling with the 50 and 21 day now still falling rapidly. Note how through the latest rally none of the moving averages changed direction from down to up. This is a signal more downside is coming for stocks.
There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.
The chart is back to 100% bearish for tomorrow.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jul 12 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Tuesday the up signal weakened as did the MACD histogram.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light support
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jul 13 2022
The technical indicators are bearish. There are no indicators pointing to the potential for a bounce. With inflation numbers due out, they will have the biggest impact on the markets.
Meanwhile the Beige Book at 2:00 PM may not mean much as most of the information has already been shared with investors. The close on Wednesday will be lower unless the inflation numbers are lower than estimated. I am expecting a close below 3800.
To update investors, I am still suffering with this kidney stone. Extremely painful would be an understatement. I was advised that this could take two to three weeks to work out. Fingers crossed they are wrong. For those who have had kidney stones in the past, I’m sure you understand the painful session this brings.
Thank you to all investors who have emailed me or tweeted with their kind words of encouragement. They are definitely appreciated.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
