Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday investors spent the day taking some profits and adjusting positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision. While the consensus is that there will be no rate cut and no hint of how soon there will be a rate cut, investors remain nervous ahead of the Fed’s decision.
The day ended with the SPX down just 3 points closing almost unchanged at 4925.
The NASDAQ closed down 118 points ending the day at 15,510.
Let’s review Tuesday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Wed Jan 31 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Jan 30 2024
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band for a bullish signal. The index is continuing to make higher highs and higher lows which is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at the 4800 valuation.
The closing candlestick is neutral ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher. Both are bullish signals.
The S&P chart is bullish for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jan 30 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Tue Jan 30 2024 the up signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is near overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling a potential lower day on Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4950 is resistance |
| 4925 is resistance |
| 4915 is resistance |
| 4900 is resistance |
| 4875 is resistance |
| 4850 is resistance |
| 4825 is resistance |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is support |
| 4750 is support |
| 4720 is support |
| 4700 is support |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 31 2024
For Wednesday the technical indicators are a bit mixed with half showing weakness and half continuing to point to the index moving higher. Wednesday though will be primarily about the Fed’s interest rate decision and in particularly, comments Fed Chair Powell makes at the 2:30 PM news conference.
The technical outlook shows a bit of weakness and a potential for a lower close on Wednesday but Fed comments will weigh heavily on stocks.
Investors are now heavily into quarterly earnings with earnings being released on Tuesday after the close in Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Alphabet Stock (GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD) and Starbucks Stock (SBUX) to name just 4. Only Starbucks Stock (SBUX) rose after hours. The remaining stocks fell after hours despite a number of strong earnings results. This will weigh on stocks on Wednesday, particularly in the morning.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
There are many events this week that could impact stocks, in particular the Fed on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Monday is the only day with no reports. That could support the bulls.
Monday:
No reports are expected
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to rise to 5.7% but rose to 5.4%
10:00 Job openings are expected to be unchanged at 8.8 million but rose to 9 million continuing to show a strong labour market.
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 115 but it dipped slightly to 114.8
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected to come in at 150,000
2:00 Fed interest rate-decision is expected to hold rates steady
2:30 Fed Chair Powell’s press conference which could be the main market moving event for Wednesday.