Tuesday saw weakness in the rally and dips that were the biggest since the start of the month. After three weeks of rallying, it was not unusual to have a negative close. However investors were also being swayed by worries that included concerns of a potential slowing global economy, the continuing partial government shutdown, the ongoing trade war with China and news, fake or otherwise, that the US had cancelled meetings with Chinese counterparts. This brought out sellers but it also saw buyers pick through stocks as they were sold lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day all three indexes closed off the lows of the day.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Jan 22 2019
The S&P chart is still bearish with 6 sell signals. Meanwhile the 21, 50 and 100 day moving averages are turning back up which could be an early signal for the bulls. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning back up and is above the 100 day moving average and almost above the 200 day for another bullish signal.
The index on Tuesday slipped to the 50 day moving average but closed back above it. This though left behind a bearish candlestick for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Jan 22 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was still strong on Tuesday although it was a bit lower.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is falling and overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Wednesday and is overbought.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
2900 was support – this will be strong resistance
2860 was support – this will be resistance
2830 was light support and will be light resistance
2800 is strong resistance
2795 is light resistance
2745 to 2750 is light resistance
2725 is light resistance
2700 is resistance
2675 is light resistance
2650 is support
2620 is light support
2600 is support.
There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.
The 2500 level is support.
The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.
There is good support at 2425.
Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.
2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Jan 23 2019
For Wednesday, the technical indicators are signaling lower for Wednesday.
This is advising us that the weakness we saw on Tuesday will stretch into another day.
The index bounced off the 50 day moving average on Tuesday which is a good sign and shows there are buyers present. However the 100 day and 200 day moving averages are showing no signs of the 100 day move back above the 200 day. The 21 day is not gaining any momentum to move above all 3 major moving averages. This remains a concern with the rally.
Overall Wednesday has a bias lower as weakness will remain for another day.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
