Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 6 2019 – Weakness And Slightly Higher

Tuesday saw the indexes continue their advance. The S&P pushed almost to 2740 and closed near the highs of the day on Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Feb 5 2019 

The S&P is still bearish with 6 sell signals. There is also one up signal on Jan 31.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday was bearish for Wednesday and the index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is often followed by a weak day or two.

The Lower Bollinger Band and the Upper Bollinger Band are turning higher indicating there is more upside ahead for the S&P.

The 21 day moving average is well above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Feb 5 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and was rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was strong again on Tuesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal was rising and is overbought.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Wednesday and is still overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating some weakness should be expected.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is resistance

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Feb 6 2019 

The technical indicators are now showing predominantly overbought. With a bearish candlestick for Wednesday and strong overbought signals from most technical indicators, Wednesday should see some larger dips but there is still a good chance the index will move above 2745 to 2750. Weakness though has to be expected as the rally is very overbought and now over extended.

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