Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday stocks staged a rebound bounce as investors cheered the tariffs with Mexico and China being delayed 30 days. The SPX rose 43 points wiping out yesterday’s 45 point loss. The NASDAQ rose 262 points, also wiping out yesterday’s 235 point loss.
The rally though was just a bounce and earnings after hours from Alphabet (GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and other companies sold lower after hours on Tuesday.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Tue Feb 4 2025 to see what to expect for Wed Feb 5 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Feb 4 2025
The index closed above the 50 and 21 day moving averages. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick shows the rally was a bounce. We will see selling today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5988 but it is still trading below the 50 day which is bearish. The 21 day might cross above the 50 day this week for what would be an up signal.
The 50 day moving average is unchanged at 5994 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5870 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5643 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is also rising which is bullish.
For Wednesday the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish aside from the closing candlestick which is warning of dips for today.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Feb 4 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal was almost gone by the close of trading, Tue Feb 4 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling Wednesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 5 2025
For Wednesday there are more signals advising that a dip lower is likely for stocks on Wednesday.
On Tuesday job openings slipped well below estimates, coming in at 7.6 million, a drop of 600,000. Some economists expressed concerns. Factory orders also came in lower than expected.
On Wednesday expect a lower open thanks to a number of stocks including Alphabet (GOOGL) which reported earnings yesterday that disappointed. The close will be negative and we should get an unconfirmed down signal from the MACD technical indicator.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI for 2024 came in higher than estimated at 31.2
10:00 Construction spendin was higher than estimated at 0.5%
10:00 ISM manufacturing was higher than estimated at 50.9%
Intraday: Autosales were lower than estimated at 16.8 million vehicles
Tuesday:
10:00 Job openings fell more than expected to 7.6 million from 8.2 million
10:00 Factory orders fell more than estimated to -0.9%
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is estimated to rise to 155,000 from 122,000 prior
8:30 Trade deficit is expected to fall to -98.6 billion from -78.20 billion prior
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated to have risen slightly to 52.9 from 52.8
10:00 ISM services is estimated to rise to 54.3% from 54.1%