Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Dec 23 2025 stocks moved higher again but this time volume dropped off and market breadth did not favor the bulls.
The S&P closed up 31 points to above 6900 at 6909. Volume was low at 3.9 billion shares but there were 124 new highs and just 47 new lows. However only 40% of stocks on the index were advancing by the close.
The NASDAQ rose 133 points to close at 23,561. Volume was 7.7 billion, but just 38% of stocks on the index were advancing.
Poor market breadth heading into the Christmas holiday is not unusual and not usually a concern. On Wednesday breadth will be poorer still and volume even lower. However on Tuesday a new important up signal was issued by the close.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Dec 23 2025 to see if we can expect the rally to continue Wednesday and Friday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 23 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but above all the major moving averages. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but is also signaling a probable dip or two in the morning. This is a half day on Wednesday with markets closing at 1:00. Any dips that occur should be early in the trading day.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6828. The 21 day is continuing to climb above the 50 day moving average. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6779 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6632 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6386 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher, well above the 100 day moving average. This is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway. The initial outlook appears for the index to move to a new high shortly.
The SPX chart is far more bullish for Wed Dec 24 2025. This should continue into Friday Dec 26.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 23 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive. This is bullish.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Dec 16 2025. A new unconfirmed up signal was generated by the close on Tuesday.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is overbought.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling and signaling a possible lower close on Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6925 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 24 2025
For Wed Dec 24 2025 the new MACD up signal, although not confirmed, is a great sign for the rally to continue into Wednesday and Friday. The MACD signal has been the most accurate of all the technical indicators for the past 3 years.
Wednesday is a half day with markets closing at 1:00. I will not be trading on Wednesday as volumes are usually quite low on Christmas Eve and the index often drifts which keeps volatility low which can mean poor prices on Christmas Eve.
Expect low volumes today and the potential for a lower close is there but it is doubtful. Historically Christmas Eve ends higher and all the technical signals at the close on Tuesday points to Wednesday ending higher. Friday is expected to end higher as well but on light volume.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports released
Tuesday:
8:30 Delayed GDP report came in much stronger than estimated at 4.3%
8:30 Delayed durable goods orders fell more than estimated to -2.2%
9:15 Industrial production fell more than estimated to -0.1%
9:15 Delayed Capacity utilization for October was unchanged at 75.9%
9:15 Capacity utilization for November rose to 76.0%
10:00 Consumer confidence was below estimates at 89.1
Wednesday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for Dec 20 are estimated to rise slightly to 225,000 from 224,000 prior
Thursday:
Christmas – no reports
Friday:
Boxing Day: No reports