Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Dec 16 2025 investors got a somewhat disappointing jobs report which covered November but also October employment numbers. October showed a drop of 105,000 jobs, obviously caused by the government shutdown. November showed 62,000 jobs created which was above estimated of 45,000 but still saw the unemployment rate creep up to 4.6% which is the highest since September 2021. With the prospects that the economy is slowing, investors worried that consumers may be pulling back on buying just as the holiday season is underway. Tuesday was a choppy day of trading.
The S&P closed down just 16 points to 6800. Volume was 5.1 billion, matching yesterday’s volume. 60% of all stocks were falling which is higher than yesterday when 48% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ rose 54 points to close at 23,111. Volume was 8.1 billion, with 53% of all stocks on the index falling, which was less than yesterday’s 62% of stock falling.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Dec 16 2025 to see what we should expect for Wed Dec 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 16 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. The SPX closed just above the 21 day moving average.
The closing candlestick is bearish but also indicates a bounce is possible as the index tries to hold above the 21 day moving average.
The 21 day moving average rose on Monday and closed at 6778. The 21 day is almost falling below the 50 day moving average.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6765 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6611 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6364 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways below the 100 day moving average. While bearish this could also be signaling an attempt to bounce. The Upper Bollinger Band is trying to turn higher which is bullish.
By the close on Tuesday there are more bearish signals than bullish in the SPX chart.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 16 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative which is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Nov 28. On Tue Dec 16 2025 a new unconfirmed down signal was generated.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling a lower day sfor Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6925 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 17 2025
For Wednesday there is a chance of a bounce for the SPX but the technical indicators advise that any bounce is suspect as the overall signals are pointing lower except for the Ultimate Oscillator.
At the close on Tuesday, the MACD technical indicator signals the next move will be lower for the SPX. This technical indicator has been fairly accurate for the past few years.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey was much weaker than estimated, coming in at -3.9 versus 10.0 expected and 18.7 prior.
10:00 Home builder confidence index rose slightly to 39 from 38.
Tuesday:
8:30 Non-farm payroll reports for Nov beat estimated at 64,000 but were below September’s jobs numbers.
8:30 Unemployment rate is at 4.6%, which is above estimates.
8:30 October retail sales were below estimated at 0.0% which is basically flat.
Wednesday:
No reports are released.