On Tuesday the inflation numbers were better than the consensus with many analysts indicating that the reports showed inflation easing. By the time the market opened, stocks were already moving higher. The rally though ended at 10:00 and stocks began to slide back as investors began to wonder about Wednesday’s interest rate hike. The close saw the indexes well off their highs. The SPX ended the day up 29 points at 4019. The NASDAQ ended up 113 points at 11,256.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Tuesday to see what to expect for Wed Dec 14 2022.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Dec 13 2022
On Tuesday the S&P closed above the 200 day, 21 day, 50 day and 100 day moving average. This is bullish. The closing candlestick is bullish and pointing to a higher day on Wednesday.
The Bollinger Bands have moved into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. While stocks could move in either direction out of the squeeze there are signs the squeeze may see stocks push higher.
A second up signal was generated on Wednesday Nov 30, with the 21 day moving above the 100 day. The 21 day is still climbing toward the 200 day. It could move above the 200 day this week. That will be a major up signal.
The 21 day, 50 day and 100 day moving averages are turning higher which is bullish. The 200 day is trending sideways which is neutral.
There are now 4 down signals in place since April 24 and two up signals.
The chart is 60% bearish for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 13 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal Tuesday Dec 6 2022. On Tuesday the down signal lost major strength. The histogram also lost strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and bouncing off oversold readings.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4150 is resistance
4120 is resistance
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4070 is resistance
4050 is resistance
4030 is resistance
4025 is light support
4000 is light support
3975 is light support
3965 is light support
3950 is good support
3925 is light support
3900 is good support
3875 is light support
3850 is light support
3830 is light support
3810 is light support
3800 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Dec 14 2022
For Wednesday expect stocks to hold a sideways bias until late morning or into the lunch hour. A rise ahead of the 2:00 PM Fed Interest rate announcement is expected. A pullback into the Fed’s news conference which starts at 2:30 should also be anticipated.
The technical indicators though are showing the bulls still have strength and could try to push the index higher into the close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Today is the interest rate announcement from the Fed. A half point rate hike is anticipated. A higher rate hike is unlikely but should it occur there is a chance stocks will move lower.
Tuesday:
2:00 Fed funds rate announcement
2:30 Fed Chair Powell news conference
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
