Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday saw investors continue to take profits. While the index slipped just 18 points, many stocks fell much deeper.
The SPX ended the day lower, closing at 6035. Trading volume fell by 500 million shares to 4.2 billion with 66% of all volume to the downside and 61% of stocks falling.
The NASDAQ saw 1 billion shares less in trading volume, with 97 new lows and 124 new highs. The index lost 49 points although for much of the day it was positive. It closed down at 19687.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Tue Dec 10 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Dec 11 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 10 2024
The index slipped lower on Tuesday and closed at the lows for the day. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Wednesday but there are signs the index may slip to the 21 day moving average which is 5995 and then attempt a bounce.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5995. The move higher for the 21 day has stalled. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5885. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5746 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5493 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moved back below the the 50 day. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook has shifted to bearish for the Bollinger Bands.
The S&P chart is bearish for Wednesday despite a good chance for a bounce intraday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 10 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Nov 25 2024. The up signal was gone on Tuesday and replaced with an unconfirmed down signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal and is leaving overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling sharply and is at a reading of 0.66 which is usually a bottom to a move lower. A bounce should be expected.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is light support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5825 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 11 2024
For Wednesday the technical indicators are dealing with an unconfirmed down signal from the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) technical indicator. This is one of the more accurate indicators. While the signal is not yet confirmed, I am expecting it will be by the close on Wednesday. We get the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers today. The index should try to stage a rally but presently it will be a bounce before a lower close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% prior.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index rose sharply to 101.7
8:30 US Productivity for the 3rd quarter was unchanged at 2.2%
8:30 Unit labor costs fell to 0.8% for the third quarter. This was unexpected.
Wednesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index for Nov is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% from 2.6%
8:30 Core Consumer Price Index is expected to stay unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%
2:00 Monthly US Federal Budget is estimated to rise to -$350 billion from -$314 billion